Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Posted on 22 March 2019 by Gerd Gigerenzer

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H G Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write But in the twenty first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven t learned statistical thinking, we don t understand risk and uncertainty In order to assess risk everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don t understand risk any better than anyone else Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.This eye opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives. Download Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You By Gerd Gigerenzer – kino-fada.fr I cannot recommend this book enough.For me, as a medical student, the day to day applications of this book are endless.Basically it teaches you to fully grasp the concept of uncertainty in situations,...Interesting but disappointingly one dimensional book whose sole idea is that The medical and legal community communicates risk badly, partly due to a misguided belief in infallibility certainty but mainly due to an ability to understand or compute Bayesian type uncertainties what is the probability of having breast cancer given you have a positive mammogram test what is the chance of being the source if you have a positive DNA fingerprint in case...This book is a shortcut to statistical numeracy Gigerenzer goes beyond being merely infomative, and helps the reader understand how to interpret, and what questions to ask to get the information needed to properly quantify risks.Q What is going on in our minds c Q My agenda is to present mind tools that can help my fellow human beings to improve their understanding of the myriad uncertainties in our modern technological world The best technology is of little value if people do not comprehend it c And easy peasy read on how if one uses statistics, they had better have a good grasp of it or ELSE.I don t remember why I wanted this book but, well, it s an extra easy read for people thrice removed from anything Q What is going on in our minds c Q My agenda is to present mind tools that can help my fellow human beings to improve their understanding of the myriad uncertainties in our modern technological world The best technology is of little value if people do not comprehend it c And easy peasy read on how if one uses statistics, they had better have a good grasp of it or ELSE.I don t remember why I wanted this book but, well, it s an extra easy read for people thrice removed from anything quantitative Nice trivia bit Just how many people were wrongly convicted due to this Q Recently, however, the Federal Bureau of Investigation performed a test of the reliability of fingerprint evidence that had never been done before In 1998, Byron Mitchell appealed his conviction for having driven the getaway car in a robbery in Pennsylvania in 1991 The conviction was based on two latent fingerprints, one found on the steering wheel and the other on the gearshift of the car The FBI decided to test the reliab...Although this book was pretty dense and took me a while to read, I think Gigerenzer did an excellent job of explaining often convaluted and complex statistical reasoning in simple terms so that a common non mathematically excitable person can see the error that so many professionals doctors, lawyers, and scientists make every day This book offered me that unique experience when you have felt something to be true for so many years in your life but never quite knew how to put words to the Although this book was pretty dense and took me a while to read, I think Gigerenzer did an excellent job of explaining often convaluted and complex statistical reasoning in simple terms so that a common non mathematically excitable per...Worth a read if you want to start thinking about the data that is quoted at you from various sources How to think about probability statistics easily , the statistical illiteracy of professions that need to know better, how stating the same thing in differen...This is a little dry but I m like an abacus without any beads and I still got through it okay Apparently, GPs and surgeons are not as numerate as you would hope, so that makes me feel better or not, if in their hands Gigerenzer presents many jaw dropping stories in a soothing Vulcan manner, mainly to do with health screening breast cancer in particular , DNA as evidence, HIV as in people...Great book I was surprised to find that it was from 2002 b c the information about the questionable benefits of regular mammographies in women 50 was just recently in the news The book is largely slanted toward other similar examples in health and medicine the...The author was very didactic His language was precise and unambiguous, without being filled with unnecessary jargon Frequently, he reiterated many points from early in the book in later chapters This guy stan...The book discusses different presentations on statistical numbers, especially rare incidents such as HIV infection and breast cancer in which false positives are prevailent The author persuasively argues that ineffective presentations using relative or single event probabilities clouds the mind of readers including medical and law professionals and induces misleading perspectives He then advocates the use of natural frequency approach to convey risk assessment.This is an important topic for The book discusses different presentations on statistical numbers, especially rare incidents such as HIV infection and breast cancer in which false positives are prevailent The author persuasively argues that ineffective presentations using relative or single event probabilities clouds the mind of readers including medical and law professionals and induces misleading perspectives He then advocates the use of natural frequency approach to convey risk assessment.This is an important ...

Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

English
22 March 2019

Gerd Gigerenzer